Tom Salinsky

With only a week to go until the razzmatazz of the 82nd Academy Awards, I thought I’d share some predictions with you. I made these using the official iPhone app, and have tried to ignore what other pundits might say.

The Ones You Care About

• Best Picture: Avatar. Nothing the Academy likes better than success. It isn’t the best film of the year, it probably isn’t the best film of the month, but it will win.
• Best Actor: Morgan Freeman (Invictus). C’mon, he’s playing Nelson Mandela for chrissake.
• Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe (Precious). Tokenism? Maybe, but they’ll want to give this film something and critics raved about her performance.
• Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds). He was practically given this award as soon as the movie opened. There’s nothing here I’m more sure about.
• Best Supporting Actress: Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air). Again, they’ll want to give this something and it doesn’t have a better chance in any of the other major categories.
• Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker. It’s going to be the Hurt Locker’s night. The question is, how many prizes will Avatar pinch from it?
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious. This is the one I’m least sure about. It could easily be Up in the Air or even District 9
• Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker. Gotta be.

And now here are the others…

• Animated Feature Film: Up
• Costume Design: Nine
• Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
• Art Direction: Avatar
• Music (Original Song): Almost There, The Princess and the Frog
• Short Film (Live Action): The New Tenants. Pure guess. Never heard of it.
• Music (Original Score): The Hurt Locker
• Visual Effects: Avatar. But I’d love it if District 9 pinched it.
• Cinematography: Avatar
• Sound Mixing: Star Trek
• Short Film (Animated): A Matter of Loaf and Death
• Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
• Documentary (Feature): Food, Inc.
• Makeup: Star Trek. NB Avatar’s not nominated, that’s all pixels, not slap and foam rubber
• Foreign Language Film: Un Prophète, France. See Short Film (Live Action).
• Documentary (Short Subject): The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant. And again.

Using the iPhone app also means I can see what other people’s predictions are. The Wisdom of Crowds implies that the aggregate of hundreds of independent pundits should be a better guide than any one person’s guess, no matter how educated. So here’s the aggregate voting there, as of today 26 February. (I, of course, will be sticking with my own predictions. What’s the point in being a pundit if you can’t be overconfident?)

The Ones You Care About

• Best Picture: Avatar. (62%, Hurt Locker second with 13%)
• Best Actor: Morgan Freeman (31%, Jeff Bridges second and George Clooney third, practically nothing in it)
• Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (42%. My pick, Gadbourey Sidibe  is third after Meryl Streep.)
• Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds). (60%. Matt Damon second for Invictus)
• Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (39%. Second is Penelope Cruz. My pick is dead last.)
• Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (47%. I don’t buy it. Up is second – surely not – and my pick is third)
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (37%, with District 9 and Precious a virtual dead heat behind it)
• Best Director: James Cameron (by a mile, 54%. Really surprised by this one. Bigelow second with 21%, Tarantino third).

And now here are the others…

• Animated Feature Film: Up (80%)
• Costume Design: Nine (36%)
• Film Editing: Avatar (57%, Inglorious Basterds second on 14%, then The Hurt Locker on 12%)
• Art Direction: Avatar (74%)
• Music (Original Song): The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart. (37%. Wish I could change my bet now. I’m just a sucker for Disney animation. Randy Newman is third on 18% after Take It All from Nine on 29%)
• Short Film (Live Action): The Door (35%. My – random – pick is third on 18%)
• Music (Original Score): Avatar (again on 46%. For the first time, my pick is dead last on 4%. Up is second and Sherlock Holmes is third)
• Visual Effects: Avatar. (93%!!)
• Cinematography: Avatar (61%)
• Sound Mixing: Avatar (55%, then Transformers on 18%, then the rest)
• Short Film (Animated): A Matter of Loaf and Death (46%)
• Sound Editing: Avatar (59%, all the rest essentially a dead heat)
• Documentary (Feature): The Cove (31%. Food Inc is second on 27%)
• Makeup: Star Trek. (63%)
• Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon (42%. Un Prophète is second on 23%)
• Documentary (Short Subject): China’s Unnatural Disaster (31%, then The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner on 21%, then the rest)

So, my guess is that it will be The Hurt Locker‘s night. I’ve put them on five gongs, with Avatar scooping only four. Users of the iPhone app are going for Avatar in a big way, however, handing James Cameron’s film nine Oscars (Titanic won 11) and not giving Kathryn Bigelow any!! Note that this requires Avatar beating The Hurt Locker every time they share a nomination, and therefore Avatar winning in every category for which it is nominated! I guess it could happen, but…

In the final count, I agree with the herd on only nine out of 24 categories, which makes me think that a career in punditry may not beckon. What might be interesting is to compare the iPhone app’s aggregations to the odds at the betting shop. The bookies, of course, are aggregating individual opinions in the same way, but – at least at first – they may be more swayed by punditry.

And what about YOU meanwhile? What do YOU think will happen?

UPDATED TO ADD: Paddy Power offers 10/11 on Avatar winning best picture, disagrees with both me and the iPhone and has Jeff Bridges favourite to win best actor at 1/6. They side with the iPhone and against me putting Sandra Bullock on 8/13 favourite to win best actress, and we all agree Christoph Waltz will win best supporting actor, the odds are 1/25. They side with the iPhone against me when it comes to best supporting actress, going for Monique at 1/16 but they side with me against the iPhone when it comes to best director, putting Kathryn Bigelow favourite at 1/4 with Cameron on 5/2. Putting a fiver on each of the favourites would win you a dismal £11.17 (plus your £30 stake back).

A much tastier bet is the total number of awards Avatar will win. You can get all nine awards at 20/1 or eight out of nine at 8/1. That might be worth a flutter.