It’s the Oscars and as usual, here are the runners and riders. I’ve managed to see seven out of ten so far, which means my confidently wrong predictions will be based on slightly more solid ground than usual.

Bugonia feels awards-worthy because The Favourite did so well and the Academy loves Emma Stone, but this is almost certainly too weird to win Best Picture, and doesn’t have the leavening sweetness that helped The Shape of Water over the line. It has a better chance in the screenplay stakes, but there it’s up against Hamnet and One Battle so it could easily go away with nothing.

F1 is the crowd-pleasing blockbuster that’s here to make up the numbers. Will no doubt pick up a technical award or two, but that’ll be its lot.

Frankenstein has pleased a lot of people but I found it airless and arid, more a video game than a heartfelt examination of the meaning of humanity and personhood. But Oscar Isaac is good and Jacob Elordi is very good, but Best Supporting Actor is very competitive this year.

Hamnet is our first film that actually stands a chance of winning Best Picture, but I think it’s third after One Battle and Sinners. Jessie Buckley looks nailed-on for Best Actress though and Chloe Zhao is also up for Best Director, so don’t count it out.

Marty Supreme likewise looks to have at least one acting award in the bag, with Timothee Chalamet pulling out all the stops and throwing them away. But even with its nominations for Best Director, Best Screenplay and Best Editing, it would be a major upset if it won Best Picture.

One Battle After Another was an immense experience in IMAX, a great rolling lolloping snowball of a film which delivers at least three eye popping experiences, but manages not to lose sight of the characters along the way. It’s easy to see why it’s the current front-runner, even though it’s second in nominations. But 13 is a very fine haul and it could easily come away with 5-6 wins (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Music, for example).

The Secret Agent I haven’t seen, but it continues the very positive trend of allowing non-English language films a sniff at the big prize, as well as a Best Actor nod for its star Wagner Moira. It has a shot at Best International Feature, but I imagine that will be its lot.

Unless Sentimental Value nicks that one, which it might very well as it’s a a film about filmmaking and the Academy loves that. It also has more nominations, with a very impressive nine, including Best Director.

Sinners is your record-breaker, its nod for Best Casting, our first new category in decades, helping but not needed to send it past the previous best of 14 nominations with a truly incredible 16. What’s even more remarkable is that it isn’t the bookies’ favourite for Best Picture, but god I’d love it to win.

Train Dreams I haven’t seen yet, but I’ll report back when I do.

In other categories, this feels like a sweep-the-board year, not a spread-the-love year so I imagine whichever of Sinners and One Battle gets Best Pic will also get Best Director. They are allowed to split the screenplay awards, and as noted Best Actor and Best Actress both look like foregone conclusions, so it’ll be interesting to see whether Sean Penn (who surely has a better chance than Benicio del Toro) can deny Delroy Lindo. Amy Madigan could be a dark horse in Supporting Actress too.

I loved It Was Just An Accident, but I think Best International Feature is a two-horse race, and I’d love my mate Lee Knight to win for Best Live Action Short.

See you back here in mid March for the results.