{"id":30,"date":"2010-02-26T13:58:41","date_gmt":"2010-02-26T13:58:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/?p=30"},"modified":"2018-01-04T17:11:44","modified_gmt":"2018-01-04T17:11:44","slug":"my-oscar-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/2010\/02\/26\/my-oscar-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"My Oscar Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With only a week to go until the razzmatazz of the 82nd Academy Awards, I thought I&#8217;d share some predictions with you. I made these using the official iPhone app, and have tried to ignore what other pundits might say.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Ones You Care About<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Best Picture:<\/strong> Avatar. <em>Nothing the Academy likes better than success. It isn&#8217;t the best film of the year, it probably isn&#8217;t the best film of the month, but it will win.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Actor:<\/strong> Morgan Freeman (Invictus). <em>C&#8217;mon, he&#8217;s playing <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Nelson Mandela<\/span> for chrissake.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Actress:<\/strong> Gabourey Sidibe (Precious). <em>Tokenism? Maybe, but they&#8217;ll want to give this film something and critics raved about her performance.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Supporting Actor:<\/strong> Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds). <em>He was practically given this award as soon as the movie opened. There&#8217;s nothing here I&#8217;m more sure about.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Supporting Actress:<span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"> Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air). <em>Again, they&#8217;ll want to give this something and it doesn&#8217;t have a better chance in any of the other major categories.<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Original Screenplay:<\/strong> The Hurt Locker. <em>It&#8217;s going to be the Hurt Locker&#8217;s night. The question is, how many prizes will Avatar pinch from it?<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Adapted Screenplay:<\/strong> Precious. <em>This is the one I&#8217;m least sure about. It could easily be Up in the Air or even District 9<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Director:<\/strong> Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker. <em>Gotta be.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And now here are the others&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Animated Feature Film:<\/strong> Up<\/li>\n<li><strong>Costume Design:<\/strong> Nine<\/li>\n<li><strong>Film Editing:<\/strong> The Hurt Locker<\/li>\n<li><strong>Art Direction:<\/strong> Avatar<\/li>\n<li><strong>Music (Original Song):<\/strong> Almost There, The Princess and the Frog<\/li>\n<li><strong>Short Film (Live Action):<\/strong> The New Tenants<em>. Pure guess. Never heard of it.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Music (Original Score):<\/strong> The Hurt Locker<\/li>\n<li><strong>Visual Effects:<\/strong> Avatar.\u00a0<em>But I&#8217;d love it if District 9 pinched it.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Cinematography:<\/strong> Avatar<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sound Mixing:<\/strong> Star Trek<\/li>\n<li><strong>Short Film (Animated):<\/strong> A Matter of Loaf and Death<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sound Editing:<\/strong> The Hurt Locker<\/li>\n<li><strong>Documentary (Feature):<\/strong> Food, Inc.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Makeup:<\/strong> Star Trek. <em>NB Avatar&#8217;s not nominated, that&#8217;s all pixels, not slap and foam rubber<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Foreign Language Film:<\/strong> Un Proph\u00e8te, France. <em>See Short Film (Live Action).<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Documentary (Short Subject):<\/strong> The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant.\u00a0<em>And again.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Using the iPhone app also means I can see what other people&#8217;s predictions are. The Wisdom of Crowds implies that the aggregate of hundreds of independent pundits should be a better guide than any one person&#8217;s guess, no matter how educated. So here&#8217;s the aggregate voting there, as of today 26 February. (I, of course, will be sticking with my own predictions. What&#8217;s the point in being a pundit if you can&#8217;t be overconfident?)<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Ones You Care About<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Best Picture:<\/strong> Avatar. (62%, Hurt Locker second with 13%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Actor: <\/strong>Morgan Freeman (31%, Jeff Bridges second and George Clooney third, practically nothing in it)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Actress:<\/strong> Sandra Bullock (42%. My pick, Gadbourey Sidibe \u00a0is third after Meryl Streep.)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Supporting Actor: <\/strong>Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds). (60%. Matt Damon second for Invictus)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Supporting Actress: <\/strong>Mo&#8217;Nique (39%. Second is Penelope Cruz. My pick is dead last.)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Original Screenplay: <\/strong>Inglourious Basterds (47%. I don&#8217;t buy it. Up is second &#8211; surely not &#8211; and my pick is third)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Adapted Screenplay:<\/strong> Up in the Air (37%, with District 9 and Precious a virtual dead heat behind it)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best Director: <\/strong>James Cameron (by a mile, 54%. Really surprised by this one. Bigelow second with 21%, Tarantino third).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And now here are the others&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Animated Feature Film:<\/strong> Up (80%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Costume Design:<\/strong> Nine (36%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Film Editing:<\/strong> Avatar (57%, Inglorious Basterds second on 14%, then The Hurt Locker on 12%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Art Direction:<\/strong> Avatar (74%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Music (Original Song):<\/strong> The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart. (37%. Wish I could change my bet now. I&#8217;m just a sucker for Disney animation. Randy Newman is third on 18% after Take It All from Nine on 29%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Short Film (Live Action):<\/strong> The Door (35%. My &#8211; random &#8211; pick is third on 18%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Music (Original Score): <\/strong>Avatar (again on 46%. For the first time, my pick is dead last on 4%. Up is second and Sherlock Holmes is third)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Visual Effects:<\/strong> Avatar.\u00a0(93%!!)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cinematography:<\/strong> Avatar (61%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sound Mixing: <\/strong>Avatar (55%, then Transformers on 18%, then the rest)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Short Film (Animated):<\/strong> A Matter of Loaf and Death (46%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sound Editing:<\/strong> Avatar (59%, all the rest essentially a dead heat)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Documentary (Feature):<\/strong> The Cove (31%. Food Inc is second on 27%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Makeup:<\/strong> Star Trek. (63%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Foreign Language Film:<\/strong> The White Ribbon (42%. Un Proph\u00e8te\u00a0is second on 23%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Documentary (Short Subject):<\/strong> China&#8217;s Unnatural Disaster (31%, then The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner on 21%, then the rest)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, my guess is that it will be <em>The Hurt Locker<\/em>&#8216;s night. I&#8217;ve put them on five gongs, with <em>Avatar <\/em>scooping only four. Users of the iPhone app are going for <em>Avatar<\/em> in a big way, however, handing James Cameron&#8217;s film nine Oscars (<em>Titanic<\/em> won 11) and not giving Kathryn Bigelow any!! Note that this requires <em>Avatar<\/em> beating <em>The Hurt Locker<\/em> every time they share a nomination, and therefore <em>Avatar<\/em> winning in every category for which it is nominated! I guess it could happen, but&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>In the final count, I agree with the herd on only nine out of 24 categories, which makes me think that a career in punditry may not beckon. What might be interesting is to compare the iPhone app&#8217;s aggregations to the odds at the betting shop. The bookies, of course, are aggregating individual opinions in the same way, but &#8211; at least at first &#8211; they may be more swayed by punditry.<\/p>\n<p>And what about YOU meanwhile? What do YOU think will happen?<\/p>\n<p><strong>UPDATED TO ADD:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.paddypower.com\/bet\/novelty-betting\/hollywood\/oscars\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paddy Power offers<\/a> 10\/11 on <em>Avatar<\/em> winning best picture, disagrees with both me and the iPhone and has Jeff Bridges favourite to win best actor at 1\/6. They side with the iPhone and against me putting Sandra Bullock on 8\/13 favourite to win best actress, and we all agree Christoph Waltz will win best supporting actor, the odds are 1\/25. They side with the iPhone against me when it comes to best supporting actress, going for Monique at 1\/16 but they side with me against the iPhone when it comes to best director, putting Kathryn Bigelow favourite at 1\/4 with Cameron on 5\/2. Putting a fiver on each of the favourites would win you a dismal \u00a311.17 (plus your \u00a330 stake back).<\/p>\n<p>A much tastier bet is the total number of awards <em>Avatar<\/em> will win. You can get all nine awards at 20\/1 or eight out of nine at 8\/1. That might be worth a flutter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With only a week to go until the razzmatazz of the 82nd Academy Awards, I thought I&#8217;d share some predictions with you. I made these using the official iPhone app, and have tried to ignore what other pundits might say. The Ones You Care About Best Picture: Avatar. Nothing the Academy likes better than success. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-culture"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5JY5l-u","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2092,"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30\/revisions\/2092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tomsalinsky.co.uk\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}